How Birdwell Forecasted Net Sales with 99% Accuracy
Birdwell Beach Britches is one of America's oldest surf brands, handcrafted boardshorts made in California since 1961. Heritage brand with fiercely loyal customers and a long purchase cycle.
Birdwell Beach Britches is one of America's oldest surf brands, handcrafted boardshorts made in California since 1961. Heritage brand with fiercely loyal customers and a long purchase cycle.
Birdwell Beach Britches has been crafting premium boardshorts in California since 1961, making them one of America's oldest and most beloved surf brands. Their customers are fiercely loyal, and their purchase cycle is long.
But without a quantitative model for revenue forecasting, Birdwell was making gut-feel decisions about inventory and media spend. LuckyRev brought data science to this heritage brand.
Birdwell needed better revenue forecasting to plan inventory and media spend. Without a quantitative model, they were making gut-feel decisions about budget allocation across channels, creating seasonal inventory risk and missed opportunities.
Birdwell had no formal system for predicting seasonal revenue, making it difficult to set realistic targets or plan inventory with confidence.
Budget allocation and spend timing relied on gut feel rather than data, leading to inefficient pacing across the season.
Inventory decisions made without data-backed demand forecasts created both stockout and overstock risks.
LuckyRev implemented LuckyProphet, their proprietary revenue forecasting model, validated against Birdwell's historical sales data. Built LuckyMMM to understand the true contribution of each channel to revenue.
Built revenue forecast model on historical Birdwell data, validated against actual sales before deployment.
LuckyProphetStatistical model mapping the causal relationship between media spend and net sales across all channels.
LuckyMMMMMM updated each quarter to reflect algorithm changes, media shifts, and new performance data.
AnalyticsForecast outputs directly informed seasonal budget decisions, inventory planning, and channel allocation.
AnalyticsBirdwell's Q4 came in with forecast accuracy that made planning easy. November delivered a record number of new customers alongside the numbers below.
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